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Allbirds, Inc. (BIRD)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue was $39.7M (up 23.5% q/q; down 23.1% y/y) at the high end of guidance, while EPS was -$1.92; gross margin fell to 40.7% on higher promotions, distributor mix, inventory adjustments, and freight/duty . Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue beat ($39.7M vs $38.6M*) and EPS beat (-$1.92 vs -$2.62*) — a modest double beat.
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss of $12.6M was better than guidance, reflecting strict cost control; net loss improved y/y to $15.5M; inventories declined 21.3% y/y to $42.2M; cash was $33.1M with $5.0M drawn on the revolver .
  • Full-year revenue guidance was lowered to $165–$180M (from $175–$195M), reflecting incremental store closures and macro; adjusted EBITDA guidance was maintained at -$65M to -$55M. Q3 outlook: revenue $33–$38M and adjusted EBITDA loss of $20M to $16M .
  • Management expects a return to top-line growth in Q4 2025, driven by an aggressive product drop cadence (19 new styles), a redesigned website, refreshed stores, and ramped marketing; financing actions (new $75M ABL and ATM program) bolster liquidity for execution .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Adjusted EBITDA beat guidance: “Q2 adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $13,000,000... exceeded the high end of our guidance range by over $3,000,000” (transcript), aligning with press release figure of $12.6M .
  • Strategic execution: CEO highlighted monthly drops and 19 new styles, “a carefully sequenced strategy to reintroduce Allbirds,” with early consumer traction and website launch ahead of plan .
  • Inventory and cost discipline: inventories down 21% y/y and SG&A down 28% y/y; store refreshes delivering measurable increases in average daily sales .

What Went Wrong

  • Gross margin compression: down ~980 bps y/y to 40.7% due to promotions, inventory adjustments tied to EU distributor transition, channel mix, and higher freight/duty costs .
  • Revenue declined 23.1% y/y to $39.7M, primarily from planned store closures and international distributor transitions; international revenue fell y/y .
  • Guidance cut: FY 2025 net revenue lowered to $165–$180M (from $175–$195M) due to macro uncertainty and additional door closures; the structural impact from transitions/closures increased to $20–$25M (from $18–$23M) .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$55.9 $32.1 $39.7
EPS (Net loss per share, $)$(3.23) $(2.73) $(1.92)
Gross Margin %31.3% 44.8% 40.7%
Net Loss Margin %(46.0)% (68.1)% (39.1)%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(19.2) $(18.6) $(12.6)
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %(34.3)% (58.1)% (31.7)%
MetricQ4 2024 ConsensusQ1 2025 ConsensusQ2 2025 Consensus
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)55.86*29.98*38.60*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)$(3.51)*$(3.90)*$(2.62)*
Primary EPS – # of Estimates3*4*4*
Revenue – # of Estimates3*3*3*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment Revenue (Geography)

SegmentQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
United States ($USD Millions)$46.0 $25.6 $28.6
International ($USD Millions)$9.9 $6.5 $11.0
Total ($USD Millions)$55.9 $32.1 $39.7

Key KPIs

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Millions)$66.7 $39.1 $33.1
Revolver Borrowings ($USD Millions)$0.0 $0.0 $5.0
Inventory ($USD Millions)$44.1 $42.9 $42.2
SG&A ($USD Millions, quarterly)$29.2 $25.2 $24.2
Marketing ($USD Millions, quarterly)$12.3 $12.0 $8.5
Store Count (Total)33 28 24
Store Count (US)30 25 21
Store Count (International)3 3 3

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$175–$195 $165–$180 Lowered
U.S. Net Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$145–$160 $132–$145 Lowered
International Net Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$30–$35 $33–$35 Raised (low end)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2025$(65)–$(55) $(65)–$(55) Maintained
Structural Impact (transitions/closures)FY 2025$(18)–$(23) $(20)–$(25) Increased impact
Net Revenue ($USD Millions)Q3 2025—$33–$38 New
U.S. Net Revenue ($USD Millions)Q3 2025—$27–$31 New
International Net Revenue ($USD Millions)Q3 2025—$6–$7 New
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)Q3 2025—$(20)–$(16) New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024)Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Product cadence & new stylesFall ‘25 lineup preview; refreshed runner, court-inspired shoe; waterproof collection; broader range and colors Early validation; Canvas Piper, utility pack; conservative buys; >50% of H2 product new Monthly drops; 19 new styles; Tree Runner NZ; Wool Runner NZ; upcoming waterproof; Kiwi collection Accelerating new product flow
Marketing strategyLaunch “Cards on the Table” with Stanley Tucci; upper funnel; performance marketing alignment Improved CAC, conversion; Allbirds by Nature messaging; broader content 100+ assets/month; PR activations; TSA trays; store events; paid media scale Scaling and diversifying
Customer experienceWebsite redesign planned; store concept prototype Web redesign on track; store pilots in SF, SoHo, Stanford Website relaunched early; store refreshes increased daily sales Execution ahead of plan
Supply chain & tariffsBaseline assumptions; gross margin mid-40s planned Tariff scenario planning; ability to price modestly; reduced buys Prepared to mitigate 20% Vietnam tariff; lower-cost new products; modest price increases in Q4 Mitigation plan active
International distributor modelTransition complete in targeted regions; profitable growth Ongoing transitions; impact spread across Q1–Q3 EU transition completed end of Q2; new agreements across Eurasia Model expanding
Financing & liquidityStrong cash; no revolver borrowings $39.1M cash New $75M ABL; ATM program; $33.1M cash; $5.0M drawn Increased flexibility

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We’re pleased to conclude the first half of the year well positioned for what’s ahead... adjusted EBITDA exceeded our guidance range” .
  • CEO on product/marketing cadence: “Beginning this month and continuing through the end of the year, we plan to drop new products every month and introduce new marketing content every week” .
  • CFO on tariffs and margin: “We are prepared to mitigate the 20% Vietnam tariff that takes effect this month… higher mix of new products… designed and developed at lower costs… modestly higher prices on select new products [in Q4]” .
  • CEO on consumer traction: “In our retail stores, of our top 15 styles, 12 of them are the new products and new colors that we're delivering… we expect [Q4] to really start to accelerate” .
  • CFO on guidance: “We’re updating our full year outlook for net revenue to a range of $165,000,000 to $180,000,000… despite the revision… reiterating our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Distributor transitions and door closures: Structural top-line headwind increased to $20–$25M, but model is immediately profitable and working capital-beneficial; closures were opportunistic and targeted unprofitable doors .
  • Inventory strategy: Strong discipline; lean inventory entering H2; operational changes (e.g., ship-from-store) enable full assortments without increasing inventory .
  • Guidance reduction drivers: Incremental $2M impact from additional door closures and macro uncertainty; conviction in Q4 growth intact given product/marketing convergence .
  • Store refresh efficacy: Low-cost refreshes added storytelling touchpoints and improved shopper interaction; noticeable lift in daily sales observed in pilot stores .
  • Financing: New revolving credit facility adds flexibility to support growth plan .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 actuals vs consensus: Revenue $39.7M vs $38.6M* (beat); EPS -$1.92 vs -$2.62* (beat); 3 revenue and 4 EPS estimates* indicate modest coverage. Management’s FY revenue cut implies sell-side models may need to reduce FY topline while keeping EBITDA trajectory similar given maintained guidance .
  • Prior quarters: Q1 2025 revenue beat ($32.1M vs $30.0M*); EPS beat (-$2.73 vs -$3.90*). Q4 2024 was essentially in line on revenue ($55.85M vs $55.86M*) and better EPS vs consensus (-$3.23 vs -$3.51*) .
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q2 delivered a modest double beat and better-than-guided EBITDA, but gross margin pressure and the FY revenue guidance cut temper near-term enthusiasm; watch for sequential margin improvement as new products with lower COGS and pricing actions land .
  • The narrative hinges on Q4 growth: monthly product drops, refreshed icons (Tree Runner NZ, Wool Runner NZ), waterproof and Kiwi collections, plus a redesigned website and store refreshes are designed to accelerate demand into holiday .
  • Liquidity and flexibility improved via the $75M ABL and ATM program, supporting heavier H2 marketing and working capital needs for product launches .
  • Tariff mitigation levers (mix shift to lower-cost new products, selective price increases) aim to keep full-year gross margin in the mid-40s despite a 20% Vietnam tariff .
  • Structural transition to distributors will depress reported revenue but improve bottom-line flow-through — important for long-term profitability while expanding international reach (new Eurasia agreements) .
  • Near-term trading setup: Q3 guide implies continued softness; catalysts include monthly product launches, PR activations, and early sell-through evidence; risk is macro/tariff volatility and execution on scaling marketing performance .
  • Medium-term: If Q4 growth materializes with margin stabilization and disciplined OpEx, the turnaround story strengthens into 2026 with planned material innovations (Terralux, Aerie) and measured wholesale expansion .